Post Poll Status in Indian Stock Market

Congress stumped all the analysts with its performance in the 2009 polls. If a hung parliament would have been there we would have seen a very bad Monday, and if in that hung parliament left would have managed to do better, we would have seen another black Monday. But nothing like that happened. Congress got full majority and left was virtually washed out. This is a very good news for Indian Stock market. We will have a good government with somewhat capitalist mindset. These five years may be proved to be a golden era for Indian Stock Market. We already see that talks of Montek for FM are in the air. Our prime minister is not a politician and now we are talking about a non-politician finance minister too. I am not sure it will be done but still this shows the nature and mindset that we can see from the coming government and this is really good for market. We can see FII cap increased, labor reforms, FDI in other segments. In my opinion GMR, Peninland, ICICI will be the scrips to watch. Segment like baking will do great in the coming year. Oil Refinery companies are also to expected to do good now. Further we can see a massive inflow from FII. In the current scenario where most of the countries economies are not doing good, India and china are bound to draw attention of investors and when central government have full power to take decisions then certainly this is a big positive for Indian stock market.

Now Something for strategy:

I always told people in my blog earlier also that the last one and a half year were time for cherry picking. Those who took advice, must be loving it now. Those who missed should not loose heart. I see markets correct valuation at early 15K...but market never behaves rationally so we can see up to 16-17K euphoria. So if you are a trader with risk appetite go ride the wave, set your target and book your profit on rise (on these levels). Sectors to pick are banking, capital goods, and infrastructure.

If you are long-term investor then start picking good fundamentally strong scrips. In one and a half year you may see a big profits from those.

It will be interesting to see the gold movement now. All the MFs, which were high on cash and gold, will certainly bring their cash in to the market but will they shrink the portion of gold from their portfolio??? Provided that world economy is still recovering so gold and dollars are still the favorite investment for world inventors this is a tough call and it will be interesting to see the response of these fund managers.

Beware of lower circuit in coming days

History shows that coming few days we can see a lower circuit in Indian Stock market. During election time we have seen these sort of crashes earlier also. One servery from a reputed company stating that "we are heading towards a hung parliament with Left in prominent role" may do so. This time though left is looking extra-ordinarily weak so the second part of predication is ruled out, but still news of hung parliament will spread the bad sentiments.

This will come as a very good opportunity for those who missed those lower levels. If we get a stable government at center, we are going to see a bull run. I expect market to be round 15K till the end of dec 2009. Though one big question mark is stable government at center.

I suspect another blood bath for indian stockmarket tomorrow

As mentioned in my previous post, Cruid is below 70 infact it is going down like any thing. I suspect a panic selling in market tomorrow.